So, if m=100 miles then gas consumed = 10 gallons
Wow! it's actually better to modestly improve the Guzzlers than double the efficiency of the Sippers.
So, intuition is important...but even more important is doing the right calculation!
So, if m=100 miles then gas consumed = 10 gallons
Wow! it's actually better to modestly improve the Guzzlers than double the efficiency of the Sippers.
So, intuition is important...but even more important is doing the right calculation!
The solution to problems
involving probabilities are not always intuitive and often require careful
thought. Below is a famous one (commonly called the "Monty Hall"
problem, after the famous host of the "Let's Make a Deal" game show).
Let's say there are three
doors. Between one of the doors is a new bike and behind each of the
other two doors is a barrel of onions. You get to choose any of the three
doors and will receive the corresponding prize behind the door.
After choosing your door, the
host opens one of the remaining doors to reveal a barrel of onions. He then gives
you a choice to keep the door you originally chose or switch to the remaining
door. Which would you choose?
Many would say "it
doesn't matter. There are two doors and one prize, so each has a 50%
chance of being the bike.". But this isn't accurate. In reality, you
are better off switching doors EVERY time.
The reason is as follows. You
have a 1/3 chance of having the bike behind the chosen door and a 2/3 chance
that it's behind one of the other doors. When one door is revealed to have
onions, the probability remains that the chosen door has a 1/3 chance of the bike while the
new information
increases the probability of the remaining door having the bike to 2/3.
So the player should always switch.
If you have trouble
understanding probabilities, it always helps to 'exaggerate' and then
'simplify'. To exaggerate, let's say there are 100 doors with one bike
prize and 99 corresponding barrels of onions. Let's say you pick door #1 and the host
proceeds to reveal 98 barrels of onions from the other doors and gives you the
opportunity to switch doors before the last door is opened. Then would it
make sense to switch? Of course it would!
Now, to make the problem a
bit harder, let's assume the host is completely clueless as to which door holds
the real prize. Then should you always switch to get a higher
probability?
Again, to solve this problem you should exaggerate (e.g. choose 100 doors) and simplify. It is HIGHLY unlikely in this scenario that as the host reveals door after door that he will not stumble upon the door holding the bike. Under such conditions, each door maintains EQUAL probability since the host is randomly choosing doors. Therefore, he is not increasing the probability that any one remaining door holds the real prize relative to other doors. It is as if he were "flipping a coin" and each event (i.e. opening of a door) were independent of the others.
So the real question is whether Monte Hall knew what was behind each door. And any avid game show observer knows that at least some of the time he must have known what was behind each door to keep the audience engaged. And therefore, odds are that it was indeed best to switch whenever given the option. :)
So, lets say you say $1000 per year for 10 years and use an account that guarantees you 5% interest per year. How much will you have after 10 years? Using the above formula:P is the principal (the initial amount you borrow or deposit)
r is the annual rate of interest (percentage)
n is the number of years the amount is deposited or borrowed for.
A is the amount of money accumulated after n years, including interest.
Assuming the interest is paid once a year:
A = P(1 + r)^n
There are many ways to help impact intuition and understanding to any student. But two of the key ways are:
It's hard to avoid today's news that discusses the $900B stimulus package. But few can understand how large is $900B. To make it more real, I encourage you to first do some simple math calculations using estimation.
There are about 300M people in the US, so you can quickly calculate the size of the stimulus for each person in the US. And if you assume 3 persons per family, you can just as easily calculate how much is being spent on each family. This type of calculation could be done by anyone in 4th grade or higher.
For more advanced students, I encourage you to take this number, and/or the US debt and begin to see what happens when you compound interest. For example, we have roughly $10.7 trillion dollar debt and last year (2008) we paid ~$412B in interest alone. What is the interest rate? How does our debt change each year based on both the deficit and interest? And what happens if we had another $1-2 Trillion dollars to the debt this year? How long will this take to pay-off if we bring out debt under control each year and pay a given amount back each year to our debtors?
This will build valuable math skills in terms of estimation and reasoning, while also helping you learn more about our country's finances.